QBE Asia flags rising marine risks across shipping

QBE Asia has published a marine insurance risk outlook for Asia, examining the threats facing shipping companies, ports, logistics groups and related service providers across the region.

The report identifies five main areas of concern: the environment, manpower, technology, economics and geopolitics, and cargo and supply chains. It draws on six months of research and combines input from the insurer's underwriters and risk engineers with external data.

One of its clearest warnings is the impact of worsening weather on marine operations. The frequency of weather-related disasters in the region has risen over time, with the highest concentration recorded in the past five years.

That trend is creating both operational strain and physical risk. Rising water temperatures are affecting vessel cooling systems and, in some cases, pushing them beyond design limits, increasing the likelihood of machinery failure and disruption.

Operators are also moving into routes that present unfamiliar hazards. The report points to the Northern Sea Route as an example of an emerging passage that offers commercial opportunities while exposing vessels to remote conditions and limited emergency support.

Labour pressure

Labour shortages are another central finding. More than half of seafarers, or 55 per cent, are expected to change employers within the next three years, while the global fleet is projected to face a shortfall of almost 90,000 officers in 2026.

The report links these shortages to higher operating costs, disruption and fatigue. Chronic understaffing, long hours and operational pressure are contributing to more fatigue-related incidents, with 25 per cent of marine casualties attributed to tiredness.

A recurring feature of the analysis is the distinction between different types of operator. Rather than treating the market as a single block, it argues that risk varies sharply between blue-water intercontinental shipping and smaller brown-water operators serving local routes.

Technology divide

That split is especially visible in technology. Larger blue-water vessels face pressure to adopt alternative fuels and broader digital systems, while many smaller operators have different operational needs and lower exposure to some of the same threats.

Engines using fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia bring new technical and safety questions because knowledge remains limited among many operators and retrofitters. Digitalisation and automation can improve efficiency for larger shipping groups, but they also increase exposure to cyber attacks.

By contrast, brown-water operators are described as less digitally advanced and therefore less likely to face the same level of targeted cyber intrusion. Their exposure is more likely to come from opportunistic attacks than from sustained campaigns aimed at specific systems.

Trade uncertainty

Economic and geopolitical pressure is another theme running through the findings. Tariffs, sanctions and armed conflict continue to cloud the outlook for shipping markets and insurance costs.

Uncertain trade policy in the US could reduce freight volumes and carrier revenue if fewer goods move across borders. Tariffs can also raise the cost of goods, feeding through to higher cargo insurance premiums.

Conflict adds a separate layer of risk. War and terrorism can disrupt shipping routes, increase security spending, divert vessels away from danger zones and slow port operations through tighter inspections. Those factors can raise freight rates, reduce trade flows and add to wider economic instability.

Cargo fires

On cargo and supply chains, QBE Asia highlights a rise in vessel fires linked to growing trade in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and oil and gas products. Container ship fires increased from 26 in 2020 to 40 in 2023.

Mis-declared cargo is identified as a major contributor. Almost a quarter of all serious incidents on container ships are linked to mis-declared cargo, and an estimated 18,000 containers at sea may contain mis-declared goods on any given day.

The findings suggest marine insurers are dealing with a broader range of operational, technical and geopolitical issues than in previous cycles. They also indicate that risk is becoming more uneven across the industry, depending on route profile, vessel type, staffing levels and digital maturity.

The outlook is intended to highlight the acute risks affecting different categories of marine insurance customer, including shipping and marine transport companies, ports, logistics operators and service providers.

The report also reflects a wider shift in the role insurers are trying to play in commercial shipping. Rather than operating purely as transactional providers, insurers are taking a more consultative role, sharing more data, analysis and operational insight with customers and intermediaries.