Planned data centres face rising climate risk: XDI

XDI has published a global analysis warning that many planned data centres face rising physical climate risk. The study covers 2,595 proposed facilities worldwide.

It focuses on the infrastructure build-out linked to artificial intelligence and identifies investment hotspots with elevated exposure to climate-related damage and disruption. The analysis examines direct threats to buildings and equipment, operational risks such as extreme heat, and wider dependencies on electricity, water, transport and telecommunications networks.

Locations identified as emerging risk hotspots include Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kansas and New York in the US; Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Hauts-de-France in France; Seoul and Gyeonggi-do in South Korea; Lazio in Italy; Rio in Brazil; Berlin in Germany; Querétaro in Mexico; and Alberta and British Columbia in Canada.

Of the 2,595 planned data centres in XDI's sample, 154, or 6%, are classed as high risk under low-resilience construction settings. South East Asia has the highest proportion of planned facilities in that category at 20%, followed by East Asia at 13% and South Asia at 12%.

Those regional risks are projected to triple or more by the end of the century. In Europe, where 7% of planned sites are currently rated high risk, average damage risk is modelled to rise by 289% by 2100.

France stands out because of both the pace of investment and the level of projected exposure. The country attracted USD $69 billion in foreign data-centre investment in 2025, yet 26% of the planned facilities assessed there are already classified as high risk in 2026 under low-resilience settings, falling to 18% under high-resilience settings.

In the US, 69 of the high-risk planned data centres identified globally are located there, nearly half of the total. Nine US states have 20% or more of planned facilities in the high-risk category.

Heat pressure

Extreme heat emerges as a separate operational challenge, particularly for facilities that rely on stable temperature control and continuous uptime. Planned data centres in Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Spain show some of the highest projected operational disruption risk, with at least 75% of the assets examined classed as high risk today.

The report also points to rapid increases in heat-related risk in countries not always seen as obvious data-centre heat hotspots. France, Canada and Australia are among the markets where modelled disruption linked to heat is expected to rise sharply over time.

Indirect risk remains underestimated in many infrastructure decisions, according to XDI. A separate review of 138 existing and planned data centres across Europe found that modelled productivity loss was 10 times higher when indirect risk was included than when only direct physical risk to the site itself was considered.

That matters for data centres because their resilience depends not only on the structure and its cooling systems, but also on the continuity of power supply, telecoms links, water access, transport routes and supply chains. Damage or disruption elsewhere in those networks can interrupt operations even when the facility itself remains intact.

Insurance is another area under scrutiny as more capital flows into digital infrastructure. The analysis cites Swiss Re projections that global insurance premiums associated with data-centre infrastructure could rise from USD $10.6 billion today to USD $24.2 billion by 2030.

Dr Karl Mallon, Founder and Head of Science and Technology at XDI, said: "The global race to build AI infrastructure is accelerating at extraordinary speed.

"Much of the debate has focused on energy demand and water consumption. But physical climate risk is becoming an increasingly important consideration in its own right. The question is no longer simply where the next generation of digital infrastructure gets built, but whether those assets can remain operational, insurable and economically resilient over their intended life."

Planning choices

The findings suggest that siting and construction standards may materially affect long-term outcomes. Because the assets reviewed are still in the planning stage, developers and investors have more scope to reduce future losses than they would with infrastructure that is already built.

That distinction is central to the analysis. According to XDI, decisions on location, engineering standards and resilience measures before construction begins can alter projected exposure to climate hazards.

Mallon said: "Future risk is not fixed. Unlike existing infrastructure, planned data centres create a window of opportunity. Decisions made today about site selection, engineering standards and resilience investment may materially influence future performance, insurability and operational continuity."